Global Trade This Week – Episode 221
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Doug Draper 0:07
right? Let's get this started, another edition of global trade this week. My name is Doug Draper. I am one of your hosts, but this is a two part show and two hosts, and it's a post Thanksgiving show, and Pete to my other host, Mr. Pete manto, Brother, how you doing? I'm doing good buddy.
Pete Mento 0:30
You know, I gotta tell you, the the
Doug Draper 0:01
You're watching global trade this week with Pete mento and Doug Draper,
Pete Mento 0:34
carbs are still kind of in my system. I think from last week, I think I'm, you know, I've overdone it. I have a cooking daughter, so she constantly sends me videos of what she wants to do with leftovers. I'm actually excited for one of them. I hate to admit this, but have you seen this trend of taking stuffing and putting it in a waffle iron,
Doug Draper 0:58
no no, and then
Pete Mento 1:00
putting, putting gravy, putting gravy on the waffle instead of Doug. It is truly glutinous, you know, and it's, it's the most American thing I can possibly think of. So I'm shockingly looking forward to this.
Doug Draper 1:15
Yeah, we, we had a we had to split leftovers to multiple families. So we had enough for one second rounder, and that's it. So my my leftover burnout did not happen.
Pete Mento 1:31
That is good, man. I'm a big fan of the of the Thanksgiving sandwich, when you put the cranberry sauce, the mashed potatoes and stuffing in the turkey, and then, you know, get yourself a nice grill going. I didn't get one of those this year, but I'm okay with it, because there was way too much eating that went on. I've not eaten a damn thing since yesterday morning, and I don't think I'm gonna need
Doug Draper 1:53
to today. Hey, question for you, and we'll jump into this thing. Have you ever heard of a condiment called jerkies?
Pete Mento 2:00
Jerkies? I don't think so. What is it?
Doug Draper 2:03
It's like a mayonnaise mustard, spicy. Think of a little bit like horseradish, but not that powerful, and it's kind of a Dijon mustard thing. Sounds nice? Yeah, my dad used to eat it all the time, and now I can never find it. I was one of it was one of those deals where my dad had it all the time, and, you know, not just for seasonal things. And I was trying to say, well, you know, maybe I'd like that. It's in the blood family blood, but I can't find it anywhere, so I'm sure it's a condiment on the top shelf at King Soopers that I never look at or reach for. So if anybody has ever heard of durkees or used it, I'd love to see your comments.
Pete Mento 2:47
And Doug, you know that there's like, one guy in Topeka right now who's, like, I know exactly where it is on the shelf. I've got you. Doug Draper, and he's, he's gonna, he's gonna go buy, like, a small case of it and send it
Doug Draper 3:01
to you. Yeah, exactly. Somebody out there knows turkeys. If you know where to find it, let me know.
Pete Mento 3:07
Heck yeah, man, I'm gonna look. I'm gonna see if they have it in Virginia for you. All right, that
Doug Draper 3:12
sounds good. Sounds good. All right. Well, this is not a show about condiments. This is a show about global trade. So let's get this party started.
Pete Mento 3:19
Yeah, buddy. So it's been 243 days since the terrorist went into place, and one of the big questions was, are people going to buy less crap? And you know, there's some questions about whether or not the numbers that we have are truly reflective of that, because people front loaded so much that even with the front loading Doug, the numbers are coming out, and it appears that India and China are in quite a decline with regards to their export volume. So manufacturing is down in both of those places. In particular. I haven't looked at any other region, but we did look at those two, and it's it's having a pretty significant effect on employment, as well as just a financial effect people that are backing behind on paying for their their loans. What most people don't realize is a lot of these big manufacturers, they take loans out to cover payroll. You know, they've got to wait 3060, 90, 120 days to get paid. So they take out loans. Well, now those loans are suffering, so people are going to alternative areas to get their loans to cover their payroll. I can't be good and like it or not, folks, we are seeing a real, serious blow to the global economy because of this decision. And it is, you know, it's reminiscent of Smoot Hawley, the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act that went into place in 1918 I believe. And when it did go into place, it caused a global ruckus, because Americans weren't buying foreign products, which meant that foreign manufacturers and foreign employees didn't have money to buy goods for America themselves. That will be the next trick. Will the companies that rely on American exports for high end manufacturing certain inputs? Is that going to become a problem for the rest of the world, and will that become a problem for us? Us as our export numbers begin to reflect the import decline that we're beginning to see. So I'm watching this close Doug, but my gut tells me that this is probably going to be something that we're going to have to deal with in the second, third quarter of next year, when the news starts to come out in the stock market, when it starts to hit American exporters.
Doug Draper 5:18
Interesting. Yeah, I you know, the smooth Holly vibe, if you will. It's definitely there. It's a fun headline. I agree with you to some degree, but really, there's two things here. It's not as linear, in my opinion, from what it was back in the 20s, right? Direct cause and effect. There's so many variables, and it truly is a global world that we live in. I know that's an obvious comment, right, but it's so intertwined. And then I think when we spoke about this, either the last show or the show before that, with China finding new not new resources, but new buyer and new markets, right? So they're kind of rerouting their trade, right? So it's not linear, direct cause and effect. There's some other rerouting, if you will, of trade and and there's more diversity in where you source, some supply chain strategies. China and India, especially China, are still powerhouses, but I think there's enough stability and diversification that it's not going to be anything that we saw in the 20s. Will there be a blip? I'm sure there will be, but I just don't see it. I was likening this when you sent it to me. Pete is during covid, my kids were in college and the 529, I remember very specifically, I was on my front porch, pacing back and forth, talking to my financial planner, saying, Turn everything to cash. I just spent 18 years saving money for college. I can't afford for this to tank. My kids are entering, you know, their college experience, shut it down, turn it all to cash, and the stock market did tank. But if you look at the trend, everything was kind of back to normal by the end of the year, and so my panic turn everything into cash and get liquid didn't really pay out. So my point is, I don't think we're in doom and gloom. Will there be a blip? I'm sure there will be, but the protectionism and the retaliation nature of what's going on, the diversity of the global trade is not going to be as impactful. I don't think back here at home,
Pete Mento 7:41
agree and disagree, Doug,
Doug Draper 7:43
agree and disagree, or
Pete Mento 7:45
agree agree to disagree. I think that there's going to be some pretty ugly, long term hangover from what's going on right now.
Doug Draper 7:56
You're the global trade guru, so we'll have to see, I'm not going to flip to your to your take on that, but,
Pete Mento 8:04
oh, and I wouldn't want you to, buddy. I wouldn't want you to. And that's what makes this show so fun, is when we disagree, and then we can look back on it and see if I was wrong or not. You know, which I really am. Let's just put that out there. I mean, I have a shocking history of being outrageously correct about things, but whatever, Doug, you know, you do you, and we can go from there, yeah. So what's your
Doug Draper 8:26
first topic? So mine is not direct global trade, but it was more towards Black Friday, right? I'm always interested to see how things go. And there's all kinds of reports that are coming out. So there was one that caught my attention this morning. It was called the company was Adobe analytics, and they said that it was the biggest Black Friday ever, right? Last year, this is the one specific day, right? It was about $10.8 billion of commerce. And this year, they said it was 11.7 so almost $1 billion more. So people are still buying but I was kind of like, well, what's the deal with that? So one thing that was kind of interesting Pete is that they said promo codes through social media, whether it's influencers or things you get on Tiktok or Reddit or whatever, that was a huge driver. And then the discounts were a little bit deeper than years past. And then the third piece is, although those numbers I gave to you was for a specific day, the concept of Black Friday is no longer one day. And you have seen this, right? So I don't know it's going to kind of develop into a new a new word. It's not one specific day, it's a week, and in some instances, even companies are going a little bit longer than that. But that analytic I just gave you is for one specific day. So the promotional codes, deeper discounts. And the last thing I'll say about that one because i. People want to get inventory off their books by the end of the year because of the prices that they had to pay in some instances to get their product in during the chaos of the tariffs, they're like, You know what? We're not going to make as much money we got to get this stuff off our books. We want to be at zero inventory levels by the end of the year. And so those deeper discounts were seen on Friday. And I think as the holiday season progresses, you're going to see deeper and deeper discounts, because nobody wants to carry this product over into the new year.
Pete Mento 10:34
Yeah, man, I gotta tell you. So I think we've talked about this before. I hate with a deep passion. I hate Black Friday shopping. I hate the concept of it. I hate being involved in it, but I'm also cheap Doug. So you put these two things together, it creates a real hornet's nest for me, and I do almost all of my present shopping, of which it is limited. I only buy for a few people online. I do most of my shopping period now online, you know, starting a Good Friday, I was on Good Friday, starting on Black Friday, I was on Amazon. And, you know, like you said, Black Friday turned a Black Friday weekend, which just rolls into Cyber Monday. So it was like this four day period of just online silliness, and I was looking for deals. So there were things that I bought just because I know people wanted them, and I wanted to surprise them at Christmas and get it for them. But then there were things that I had no intention of picking up, but the deal was just too good. So although I bought mostly presents for everyone, I did buy myself an air purifier. I'm an allergy sufferer, and unfortunately, in a very bad breakup, not too long ago, I lost all of my my air filters, my HEPA filters, so I bought a gorgeous one that normally would have cost me 280 bucks for 190 and I was very happy with that deal. I think that the the number that we're talking about, this Black Friday number, has a lot to do with the fact that people are a little nervous about making their money go farther. So they're they're looking at opportunities to spend that money in a more meaningful, impactful way during those those those declines. Now what you also rep Doug, I think it's important to realize, I completely agree with you, people are going to try to get as much inventory off of their books as possible. And as we get closer to the end of the year, dude, right, there's going to be some fear that's rolling up. Let's get rid of this crap. I think this could be a really good opportunity for people to look for opportunities and bargains closer to Christmas, as they pop up, and then after Christmas, we talked about this on the show years ago, Doug that there appears to be a new phenomenon that after Christmas, when people have gotten their gift cards and they start shopping with gift cards, they're really deep discounts. So is it possible that Black Friday has turned into basically black December, early January, at this point where just so much consumer spending is happening, I highly suggest that everyone watch the documentary. What would Jesus buy? It goes real deep into these topics and the consumerism and the credit problems that come from Christmas for American consumers. And I would also say to folks that if you are mindful of trying to save money, that looking for promo codes right now and those stupid emails that we get constantly throughout the year, this is the time to maybe open them and see if they're going to be there. Inventory is expensive to carry, and as we are all expecting, that next year is going to be a little tougher on the balance sheet for most companies. You're absolutely right. I think folks are going to be dying to be dying to look for opportunities to put that that inventory out there. The last thing Doug, I will say is I did go to a mall on Black Friday, and although it was crowded, it wasn't nearly as crowded as I thought it would be. So when you sent the show notes over and you had that number, I was a little surprised. I was there in the middle of the day on Black Friday, and really it wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be, but my daughter pointed out that it was still a lot more crowded than it ever was for a new society where we tend to buy most things online. There really was a good amount of people that were there. Yeah. Well, that, of course, brings us to Doug's favorite part of the show, halftime. He likes to say our favorite part of the show when it's his turn to introduce it, but it is not our favorite part of the show. It is his. We much like any relationship, much like any marriage, there's things you do just to keep the other person happy, and at halftime is here to keep Doug happy, but it's brought to us by people that we adore at CAP logistics. Cap logistics has been supporting this podcast since its very first inception, and they've never wavered, not through covid, not through anything. They've always been there for us. And hopefully you guys will take an opportunity to check them out@caplogistics.com and learn what it is that they can do for you. They'll. Also lend us their least talented producer, Keenan, who works with us every week to make sure the field gets out. And for that, we are appreciative. So Doug, who's going to go first this week with halftime,
Doug Draper 15:11
I'll jump in. Hey buddy, I'll jump in. So as you know, college football season is coming to an end, and, I mean, you got playoffs and stuff, but that's coming to an end, and then the NFL is really ramping up. It's the final four games of the of the season, and so they're in the they're in the news, right? So my question to you, Pete, is, are you a college football guy or a professional football guy, and if so, why
Pete Mento 15:45
I'm very much professional football guy. I've tried on a number of occasions to give a damn about college football, and I come from a family of very passionate Texas A and M fans, and the ones that aren't Texas A and M fans, very passionate LSU fans, and I just can't bring myself to care. I have a friend of mine. He was my quarterback in high school. He's the head coach at UNLV. Used to be the head coach of Florida. Was the coach of Mississippi State. You would think that I would care because of that, I don't. I have a hard time getting amped up for it, much for the same reasons that I struggle with the NFL, the constant moving of players. I really I enjoy sports, not just because of the team. I definitely follow the names and not the laundry. And now with the with the transfer portal, which I, you know, I'm all for, it's easier than ever for these guys to go where the best opportunity is, like any of us would do. It's not really so much. The NFL, to me, is a spectacle of everything that is truly American. It is excess in every possible way, financial, violence, sports, advertising, you name it. So for me, buddy, it is all NFL.
Doug Draper 16:54
Well, this is the one show if people listen to us like all you guys do is talk about topics and agree with each other. This is the show where we're not. And I am absolutely a college football guy. Pro is fine, and there's some good games, a couple of good games yesterday, but I am a college football guy through and through, right? I mean, you think, and here's the reason number one, so much tradition around college football, because that sport has been, been going on for centuries, right? And so the tradition and the passion that you have for your school, if you did go to college, the name, it's perfect that you said that, because I don't follow the names. I follow the stool. So it is the laundry, so to speak, of what what you had just indicated. So there's pageantry and like ritual, if that's the right word, just the tradition and and things that come with it. That you have a spirit towards a stool, not an individual, is pretty impactful. And then the whole concept of the underdog, you know, any given Sunday of the professional world, anybody can beat everybody, but the underdog story, when you have these powerhouses, like you said, the A and M that just can't make it happen on that one Saturday is is amazing. So I just, I'm a huge college football guy. Pro is okay. I'll watch. I enjoy football. But College, without a question to me, it's better sport
Pete Mento 18:22
So Doug, here's a big difference, right? You went to a big name state university that has awesome athletics. You went to Kansas, and they are perennial basketball all stars. They have big, deep budgets and rabid fan bases for state that doesn't have many professional sports teams. You guys have the Royals, right? And then you have, of course, some terrible team with some crap quarterback out there too for the NFL. But it is, it is. It's like Wisconsin with the Packers. And then they really care about badger football. They really care about badger hockey. You know, they get, they get off on it. I went to a dog shit division three college. You know? I played, I played, I played dog shit, Division Three, lacrosse, right? For me, it's different. And I think if you go to a school in particular, the passion that you have for that school in all things follows you your whole life. What cracks me up Doug is when I'm at a bar and I'm watching a college football game. And there's all these people that have never set foot on the campus, let alone gone to school there, that are die hard fans for these college teams. I'm like, You're you've never been there, like all these folks that are Notre Dame fans, and all these people that are Michigan and Ohio State fans. They've never even set foot on the campus, but they are deeply bred into it. I mean, we had a huge game this weekend, Michigan, Ohio State, right? People go crazy about that game. And I guarantee you, man, most of the folks that are wearing Wolverine stuff and Buckeye stuff have never attended a moment of classes at those places. So it just seems. So, so queer to me, that that's, that's, that's how the world has turned out. You know, so strange to me, and I'm from Texas, man, and people go crazy about college football for teams that I couldn't identify their logo if put a gun to my head. But I think it has a lot to do. It makes sense to me that you would Doug, you know, it doesn't make so much sense to me that so many other people care.
Doug Draper 20:22
Yeah, good. One that is a Thanksgiving dinner conversation for sure. So, yeah, anyway, what you got, man?
Pete Mento 20:31
All right, so mine. Mine is holiday based. My daughter and I will likely be decorating our Christmas tree this coming weekend, which makes no sense, because we're not going to be around for much of the holidays, but we have odd Christmas traditions in my family. One of them is the placing of the Christmas turd on the tree. So So Doug, many years ago we were we were painting ornaments, and one of them was a pine cone, and I simply painted it brown, and it was pointed out that that really did not look like a pine cone, but but rather the detritus of an animal. And so it became the Christmas turd. And it is, it is without question. Of all of the Christmas decorations, the one that is the most, the most elevated and vaunted on the tree. We also have the Christmas pickle that we put on the tree. On Christmas Eve we, being me and whoever finds a Christmas pickle, gets a special gift. I have one child, really, not that much of a big deal to go find the Christmas pickle. Christmas Eves at my house are very German. Lots of German food, lots of German sweets, German beer, German sausages. Christmas Day is very British. We do the crackers, where you crack those open. I'd like to have beef wellington, if I can find it. But the traditions for me, pretty much stop there. I did Christmas cards for the first time in forever. This year. I had done those in a very long time, but, but we don't really have too many odd Christmas traditions. And I I have friends of mine that have wild ones. I mean wild ones, like they buy each other hats, and you have to wear it's like a Secret Santa. And whatever hat you get, you have to wear it during the entire opening. And there one guy went out one year, one guy's brother and he bought a mascot hat for for Wally, the green monster, for the Red Sox. This guy had to wear it as they were opening up all the presents. There is a there is a Christmas tradition in another friend's family where you get to slap one of your siblings. That's the one time all year that you get to slap your sibling. And now they're in their 40s and 50s, and they still do it every Christmas. So Doug, are there any strange holiday traditions that you have in your family,
Doug Draper 22:46
not really the only one would be taking the Christmas tree down on Christmas. So maybe that's a little unique. And my next door neighbor, so when I lived in Denver, we lived in this redevelopment master plan community where houses were very, very close to each other, kind of like inner cities. And so my next door neighbor, he said it was like a Clark Griswold moment, where, because we put the tree up the weekend and thank you, right? And we always get a real tree, and a month later, the the needles are falling off. It's a fire hazard. And oftentimes we would go up to the mountains, literally between Thanksgiving and New Year's, or, excuse me, Christmas and New Year's. And so we would tear the tree down and pack everything up, and I would literally take it out of our house, drag it across the yard, throw it in the alley, get recycled. And my neighbor would be like, there's nothing that I enjoy more than having a cup of coffee before the kids get give up to get up to unwrap their presents and drapers, they're ripping his tree out of his back door. I really appreciate it. Yeah, yeah, that would probably be it. But other than that, we're pretty, pretty traditional. You know that last thing, because I know people don't listen to this show for the halftime, but we have or family ornaments, and all the trips that we go on, we made a point. And so the cool thing is, as we're trimming the tree, we would say, remember when? Right, we pull out an ornament from a visit to Santa Fe, New Mexico, or Cancun, or whatever activity you know, Moab, Utah, and we would just bring back the memories to talk about that time as a family. So that's not weird. That's pretty traditional. But I those are the two things I remember, the memories from the Christmas ornaments and calling it a day and getting this damn tree out on thing on Christmas Day.
Pete Mento 24:41
I love them both. I love them both. Yeah, I'm looking forward to are you? Are you going to rip the tree down this year too, or, because you live there in the mountains, are you going to
Doug Draper 24:51
keep it up? Well, this year we now that we don't live our kids don't live with us anymore. It's a fake plastic tree that's about three feet tall. All so we've pivoted away from those traditions.
Pete Mento 25:05
Yeah, I'm spending Christmas all by my lonesome this year, and it's being done on purpose. My daughter will be with her mother in Rhode Island, and I will be in New Orleans, and I am very much looking forward to having a nice New Orleans Christmas, being left the hell alone, having a very expensive meal that I'm not gonna have to pay for, which is another story for another time, and really just not having to deal with family and friends. I'm very excited.
Doug Draper 25:34
That's right. There is a little different take on the holidays, for sure.
Pete Mento 25:39
Oh, yeah. Oh, if I would do it up at Grinch mountain every year, I would steal all the presents and just do it up in Grinch mountain. Christmas drives me crazy with all the consumerism and the fewer and fewer people in church. But that's another conversation for another half time. So we want to thank our friends in cap logistics for as always supporting us. And with that, I guess we'll get to the next topic, oh, which is me, Doug. Doug, this topic was picked just to make you angry. I'm being serious, like I had another topic that I was going to do that was about currency. But I said, No, no, let's, let's wind up Doug a little bit. So the good people at Amazon are putting out reports now, and they're not the only ones that they have been able to cost effectively deliver goods with drones. Doug, they're doing a hell of a job with it. So the drone is sent to where it needs to go using artificial intelligence, many of them are monitored at one time by a single drone pilot to make sure everything goes fine, and they're being used mostly for hand delivered expensive items, better than a photograph is taken of the person who accepts it. And, yeah, guess what, bud, it's going really well. So they're saying that that this particular delivery method is going to be used for expensive, highly pilferable items, where they will send it to someone who then they can get a picture of them receiving it. Possibly have a QR code that a photograph is taken to release the product. Doug, it's happening, whether you like it or not. Doug, it's happening. The drones are coming. How do you feel about that? Doug,
Doug Draper 27:16
I still think drone deliveries are stupid. I'm just going to go on there. Hey, if you know, God, I could go so many different ways with this so specific to your topic, right? When you sent this to me in the notes, all I could think of is death of the drone itself, destruction of the drone itself, hacking the drone to take over it, and then weather delays, like, we can't really make a drone delivery because there's cloud cover, or there's a storm or whatever there may be. So you know that. So those are things that come to my mind, right? And then the package must be five pounds or less. And then I read, I did a little research, after you shot this over, is that the delivery spot has to be clear of obstacles. Plants. Can't be any taller than five feet tall, and there needs to be a 10 foot open space to make the delivery, okay. That means no major cities are getting done, done drone deliveries. And it's just, I don't know, man, oh, and then they all have to be within a certain distance of a of a Amazon, DC, so you know, if you want to drop something in Waco, Texas, I guess that would work, right? But here's the deal, what's going to happen multiple times is there's going to be people sitting on their porch, and all you're going to hear is, Hey, y'all watch this. And then they're gonna blow the shit out of that drone in midair, and they're gonna go find whatever they just exploded and and go from there. So I don't know, man, people will still dabble. Maybe there's a little bit of it. But as far as like drones taking over the world, to take away a human making a delivery. I don't think it's ever going to happen. I'm not even saying it's five years out. I just don't think that America and the world is ready for drone deliveries. Now, I'm not going to go into this, but the one thing is, hey, we need mission critical parts or medical supplies to get some place that cannot be accessed in other means, I could see that you've seen that time and again, but to your specific point, I know it makes me mad and it just I think of theft, destruction, hacking and weather.
Pete Mento 29:33
So Doug, I wrote notes because I was expecting you to push back. Yeah. So when we first started using trains to deliver things, people thought that the trains were just going to kill people. They went so fast they were going to ruin the world, that worked out, okay. And then there was aircraft. People thought we'd never make a plane big enough to be able to manage air freight trucks at first, not so hot. They were too small. They brought. Down too often. Technology caught up. There was a period of time when it sounded absurd to have pizza delivered in under an hour. Now it's commonplace have it in less than 20 minutes. Doug, the technology is catching up with the demand. Now the rest of it, first of all, how dare you, sir? How dare you revile the good town of Waco, Texas. I really hope, I really hope, that we have no wacoites that are watching the show. It is a vibrant community, very, very large town, very it's a city actually home to a university. It's a lovely place. And I just want to say that, on behalf of everyone in Waco Texas, how dare you, sir. And then also along those same lines, don't transportation systems get hacked all the time. Of course they do. Don't trucks break down all the time. Of course they do. Aren't trucks hijacked all the time, of course they are. Buddy, don't even get me started on porch pirates. I think the future is coming, and you can't run from it. Doug, I think there's a period of time when you're just going to have to say it's happening, and I need to embrace it. I can't wait till you sell your first drone delivery. I really can't.
Doug Draper 31:05
Yeah, I don't know. I'm going to be long and retired by the time any of that nonsense happens,
Pete Mento 31:11
you know, buddy, I don't know. All right, but take us home with the last, last topic.
Doug Draper 31:17
All right, so this one is about, I guess kind of 2026, imports. And what does the port traffic look like, as far as larger ports, second tier, third tier ports. And I started thinking about this. It was related to Black Friday when I was putting that, that thought together. And here's the gist of it, Pete is the the the large will dominate, and the second and third tier ports are going to suffer. Second third tier ports had a a renaissance, if you will. Right during covid, right? Everything was so congested and packed, and they needed some alternatives. So the savannahs of the world, and those type of ports really, really became popular well, with the fact that there is increased capacity coming out. Book about that on a couple of shows, where there's so much inventory of vessels and actual containers themselves, they're going to be released in 26 there's going to be blank sailings. There's going to be reroutes to maximize payload, all the things that we spoke about. And there's going to be rates that are incredibly inexpensive rates, if you will. So 2026, is going to be good for the big boys, because if you want to go to a port in Savannah, because your DC is close, you're going to have a hell of a time to get the ocean container just to La forget about Savannah. And the cost of inventory is going to continue to remain high because of the the uncertainty of tariffs. So my point is that the big boys, the big ports, the major gateways, are going to see the benefit of 2026 now are they going to be explosive and growth? I don't think so. But the ones are going to suffer, in my opinion, are the second, third tier type of port. And then the bottom line, Pete, just human intuition, and I'll end with this, is that when there's chaos, which we've experienced in the last 200 and some odd days that you just made mention, and there's a crazy ride, just like an amusement park. After it's over, you need some calm, some stability, some comfort. People pull back. And pulling back is a safe, secure port like LA that has the infrastructure that has capacity, that can move their goods through as fast as possible. So I think 2026 imports, Pete, I just thought of this right now is going to be the meatloaf and mashed potatoes.
Pete Mento 33:48
2026 I don't, don't disagree. Doug, I think for a couple of reasons. One, folks are so worried about these pending port fees and whether or not the president's going to pull a nutty and put them back in place. So you move a lot of cargo at the same time in a very large ship. A lot of these smaller ports can't handle that. The second reason has to do with specialization. A lot of the ports that we're talking about, these smaller ones, are leaning towards specialization, refrigerated cargo, row row vessels, you know, break bulk. So in doing so, it's going to change where they sit with the ports. As far as the size of the consumption, you know, during covid, you had Jacksonville suddenly explode, Savannah suddenly explode. And it was great, but the need for that really came, like you said, it was Mother Necessity. I don't think anyone thinks next year is going to have the kind of volumes that we've normally had, and it's going to be tougher on these smaller ports. So as they double down on specialization, and as the carriers begin to double down on all these terrible things you mentioned, like blank sailings and then changing the strings, I absolutely agree with you. I think it's going to be a tough year for those particular ports. We'll see if we're wrong or not, but every indication. And it's going to be a rough one. So another great year for New York, New Jersey, another great year for LA, another great year for Houston. We know the ports Seattle, they're going to have another great year, but my poor Boston Port, I'm worried about them certainly. Jacksonville and, you know, let's be honest, Baltimore and Norfolk, which we're doing great, but we'll see if that remains the case, moving forward,
Doug Draper 35:22
75% disagreement. 25% agreement on this show.
Pete Mento 35:26
Now it's 75% Pete's right, 25% but well, you know, that's for another time. As always, we thank all of you for joining us, for listening, for sharing the podcast, for for for subscribing. We ask you to continue to do so please do subscribe to the show, and as we always say every week, what's happening in global trade, Doug and I'll be talking about it on global trade this week. Thanks, buddy. I'll see you next week. Excellent. All right. See you.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai